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DTN Midday Grain Comments     09/17 11:37

   Corn, Soybeans Lower at Midday; Wheat Mixed

   Trade is lower at midday with early wheat gains fading. 

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are weaker with the Dow futures down 10. The 
interest rate products are mixed. The dollar index is 40 lower. Energies are 
mostly higher with crude up 0.05. Livestock trade is mixed after early 
pressure. Precious metals are firmer with gold up $6.50. 

   CORN

   Corn trade is 3 cents lower with trade easing into new lows on the December 
contract to start the week. Wetter near-term weather may slow harvest progress 
in the center of the Corn Belt later this week. Ethanol margins remain tight 
with futures still on the low end of the range, while the blender margins 
remain solid. Corn basis will likely see more harvest pressure here in the near 
term. The weekly progress report is expected to show steady conditions with 
maturity and harvest ahead of normal. The weekly export inspections were good 
at 1.03 million metric tons. On the December chart, support is at the low at 
$3.48 1/4 with the 10-day at $3.60 as resistance. 

   SOYBEANS

   Soybean trade is 4 to 6 cents lower at midday with pressure from the ongoing 
trade concerns and early harvest. Meal is $2.50 to $3.50 lower, and oil is flat 
to 10 points lower. Soybean basis is expected to see more pressure as storage 
space will be at a premium once harvest gets rolling with rain delays possible 
later this week. Crush margins remain even as meal fades from the highs, along 
with outstanding biodiesel margins. Early planting in South America will be 
getting underway soon with conditions on the dry side going in but no major 
concerns expected for a while. Brazil and Argentina currencies remain 
historically cheap with the real falling back to the lows. U.S. and Brazil 
offers are near parity to China even with the tariffs. The second round of 
trade aid is being targeted for early December. Weekly Crop Progress is 
expected to show steady conditions and maturity above normal. The daily wire 
had 241,000 metric tons of soybeans sold to unknown. The weekly export 
inspections ran in line with recent weeks at 784,752 metric tons. On the 
November chart, support is fresh lows at $8.21 scored Wednesday and tested this 
morning, with the 10-day at $8.37 and the 20-day at $8.46 noted resistance 
levels. 

   WHEAT

   Wheat trade is mixed at midday with trade mostly holding the gains from 
Friday so far. The U.S. still struggling to secure export business but should 
be positioned better soon with world tenders solidly higher last week. The U.S. 
dollar is at the bottom of the recent range. Russia is expected to catch some 
rain in the near term while they try to cut spring wheat and plant winter wheat 
with some snow in Siberia. Australia looks to have more mixed weather in the 
near term with longer-term dryness still an issue as we get closer to harvest 
there, and some frost in Western Australia. Matif milling wheat is firmer this 
morning as well. The weekly Crop Progress report should show winter wheat 
planting near average and spring wheat harvest nearly wrapped up. Weekly export 
inspections were in line with recent weeks at 406,004 metric tons. On the 
December KC chart, we have support at the lower Bollinger Band at $4.95 with 
resistance the 10-day at $5.19.

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser. 
He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


(BAS)

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